"ABIO10 PGTW 121800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/121800Z-\r\n131800ZMAR2026//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n9.3S 54.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 54.7E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF \r\nSEYCHELLES. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING BUT ELONGATED \r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH, OBSCURED BY \r\nFLARING CONVECTION. A 121416Z WSF-M MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED A MOSTLY \r\nLINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH \r\nAXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 \r\nTO 20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS), \r\nAND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE \r\nDECREASED THE PROJECTED PEAK INTENSITY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, WITH \r\nTHE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SOME \r\nDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS PRIOR TO THE ENCROACHMENT OF A DRY \r\nAIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF, GFS, AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND \r\nENSEMBLE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A MODEST CHANCE OF TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY \r\nTRACK OF 94S OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO \r\nMEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"