"ABIO10 PGTW 131800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/131800Z-\r\n141800ZMAR2026//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n9.9S 54.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 56.8E, APPROXIMATELY 291 NM SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHEAST OF SEYCHELLES. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY \r\nCONSOLIDATING BUT ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED INSIDE THE \r\nMONSOON TROUGH, OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nREVEALS MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO \r\nMODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), WARM (29 TO 30 C) SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK AND \r\nDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ENCROACHMENT OF A DRY AIR MASS \r\nFROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL BE A HINDRANCE TOWARDS 94S REACHING \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ECMWF AND GFS \r\nENSEMBLE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON TRACK WITH ECENS SHOWING STRONGER \r\nINTENSITY THE FURTHER SOUTH 94S TRAVELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"