"ABPW10 PGTW 090600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZNOV2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090151ZNOV2024//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090152ZNOV2024//\r\nREF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090153ZNOV2024//\r\nNARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n14.5N 133.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 644 NM \r\nEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nDEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE \r\nCURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES (29-30C), LOW VWS (10-15KT) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 92W TRACKING WESTWARD TO \r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINES, WITH STEADY \r\nINTENSIFICATION INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. \r\nAN EARLIER SMAP IMAGE AT 082105Z SHOWED A SWATH OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS \r\nOVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C \r\n(WTPN22 PGTW 090200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n6.0N 151.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY 153 NM \r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF FLARING, DISORGANIZED DEEP \r\nCONVECTION. A PARTIAL 082354Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS SHOWS A BROAD \r\nCIRCULATION WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE \r\nSEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT \r\nFOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KTS, GOOD \r\nUPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES OF 29-30C. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CHUUK (PTKK) \r\nINDICATE EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS \r\nAND SLP NEAR 1008.9MB. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W \r\nWILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT \r\n24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"