"ABPW10 PGTW 100600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZNOV2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZNOV2024//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100152ZNOV2024//\r\nREF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100153ZNOV2024//\r\nNARR/REFS A, B, AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n6.6N 149.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 145.7E, APPROXIMATELY 296 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) \r\nWITH IMPROVING CURVED AND FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE \r\nNORTHERN PERIPHERY. A PARTIAL 100030Z ASCAT METOP-C 25KM PASS REVEALS \r\nELONGATED TROUGHING WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH A \r\nDISORGANIZED CIRCULATION OF 10-15 KTS NEAR THE ASSESSED LLC AND AN \r\nISOLATED AREA OF 20KTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE \r\nWINDS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT FROM THE \r\nAFOREMENTIONED ASCAT-C IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20KTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND \r\nWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS \r\nARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT \r\nTRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. WITH GFS BEING THE \r\nMOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL, GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORECAST 25 KTS IN THE \r\nSYSTEMS WIND FIELD. HOWEVER, ALTHOUGH NAVGEM IS FORECASTING A SURFACE \r\nCIRCULATION, THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THE LAST MODEL RUN TO 10-\r\n15 KTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"