"ABPW10 PGTW 101330\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS 101330Z-111330ZNOV2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100751ZNOV2024//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100752ZNOV2024//\r\nREF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100753ZNOV2024//\r\nREF/D/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101321ZNOV2024//\r\nNARR/REFS A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF D IS A \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n8.6N 145.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 143.1E, APPROXIMATELY 211 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) \r\nDEPICTS AN IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH \r\nINCREASING CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING BUILDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY. \r\nADDITIONALLY, CONVECTION IS BUILDING OVER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, \r\nCONSISTENT WITH AN INTENSIFYING TROPICAL SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH \r\nLOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, \r\nAND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC \r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO \r\nCONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. \r\nWITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL, GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE \r\n25 KTS IN THE SYSTEM'S WIND FIELD WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AS \r\nFOR NAVGEM, THE MODEL IS FORECASTING A SURFACE CIRCULATION SLIGHTLY \r\nLESS, WITH WINDS OF 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD \r\nWHILE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION REMAINS BROAD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF D (WTPN21 PGTW 101330) FOR FURTHER \r\nDETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO\r\nHIGH.//"