"ABIO10 PGTW 241800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/241800Z-\r\n251800ZNOV2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZNOV2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n5.2N 99.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 100.0E, APPROXIMATELY 206 NM SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHEAST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) \r\nDEPICTS PERSISTENT, FLARING CONVECTION WITH AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT \r\nFOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP \r\nLAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND \r\nMODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC \r\nMODELS ARE IN A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS SHOWING THE CIRCULATION \r\nREACHING UP TO 35 KNOTS WHILE ECMWF IS MORE CONSERVATIVE. ONLY GEFS \r\nMODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITHIN THE AREA THAT CAN \r\nBE DISTINCTLY FOLLOWED THROUGHOUT THE TIMELINE. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A \r\nSLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK BUT REMAIN SIMILAR WITH BOTH GEFS AND \r\nECENS DEPICTING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PROVENCE OF ACEH. THEY \r\nBOTH SHOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE ANDAMAN SEA. ULTIMATELY WITH GEFS \r\nHAVING A STRONGER TRACK AND SYSTEM LIFESPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"