"ABIO10 PGTW 242200\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/242200Z-251800ZNOV2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZNOV2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n5.2N 99.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 100.0E, APPROXIMATELY 206 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS PERSISTENT, FLARING CONVECTION WITH AN OBSCURED \r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) \r\nSOUTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT 48 \r\nHOURS, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH \r\nGFS SHOWING THE CIRCULATION REACHING UP TO 35 KNOTS WHILE ECMWF IS \r\nMORE CONSERVATIVE. ONLY GEFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEFINED \r\nCIRCULATION WITHIN THE AREA THAT CAN BE DISTINCTLY FOLLOWED THROUGHOUT \r\nTHE TIMELINE. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK \r\nBUT REMAIN SIMILAR WITH BOTH GEFS AND ECENS DEPICTING A NORTHWESTWARD \r\nTRACK OVER THE PROVENCE OF ACEH. THEY BOTH SHOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT \r\nINTO THE ANDAMAN SEA. ULTIMATELY WITH GEFS HAVING A STRONGER TRACK AND \r\nSYSTEM LIFESPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 \r\nTO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n        (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA. 2.A.(1) WITH 05S FINAL \r\nWARNING INFORMATION.//"