"ABPW10 PGTW 101800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/101800Z-110600ZMAY2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n7.7S 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM \r\nSOUTH OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA . ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW \r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE \r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nMODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 \r\nKNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. \r\nFURTHERMORE, WARM (2829C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A HUMID CLIMATE \r\nARE CURRENTLY HELPING 93P WITH POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. DETERMINISTIC \r\nAND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93P WILL REMAIN \r\nQUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE ARAFURA SEA AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 \r\nTO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. \r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.9S \r\n156.9E, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONIARA,SOLOMON \r\nISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A \r\nPOORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY \r\nFLARING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A PARTIAL \r\n101132Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS STRONGEST \r\nWINDS ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA \r\nINDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO \r\nMODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30C) SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION \r\n94P WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT \r\n48 HOURS.  ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH \r\nECENS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.6S \r\n171E, APPROXIMATELY 191 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATA. ANIMATED \r\nENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC \r\nCIRCULATION UNDER VERY STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 50 \r\nKTS) DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX TO THE SOUTH OF THE \r\nSYSTEM. CONVECTION IS BEING VIGOROUSLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST \r\nOF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A 101030Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED 35-40 KNOT \r\nWINDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, DISPLACED ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH \r\nOF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95P IS IN AN \r\nUNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE HIGH \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE \r\nENTIRE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28 C) SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A FAST \r\nEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED \r\nWIND FIELD AND THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN \r\nPERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE:  ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2) AND \r\nADDED AREA IN PARA. 2.C.(1) AS A LOW. ////"