{"ObservationDate":"2025-05-10T18:00:00","Latitude":-19.6,"Longitude":171.0,"Windspeed":35.5,"Pressure":1004.0,"Identifier":"INVEST 95P","PotentialStatus":"LOW","OriginalBulletin":["ABPW10 PGTW 101800","MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//","SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH ","PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/101800Z-110600ZMAY2025//","RMKS/","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:","      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","7.7S 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM ","SOUTH OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA . ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE ","IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW ","LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE ","SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A ","MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 ","KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ","FURTHERMORE, WARM (2829C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A HUMID CLIMATE ","ARE CURRENTLY HELPING 93P WITH POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. DETERMINISTIC ","AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93P WILL REMAIN ","QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE ARAFURA SEA AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER ","THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 ","TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 ","MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL ","CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. ","      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.9S ","156.9E, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONIARA,SOLOMON ","ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A ","POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY ","FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A PARTIAL ","101132Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS STRONGEST ","WINDS ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA ","INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO ","MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30C) SEA ","SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL ","DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION ","94P WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT ","48 HOURS.  ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH ","ECENS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM ","SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA ","LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE ","DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ","IS LOW.","      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:","      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.6S ","171E, APPROXIMATELY 191 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATA. ANIMATED ","ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC ","CIRCULATION UNDER VERY STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 50 ","KTS) DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX TO THE SOUTH OF THE ","SYSTEM. CONVECTION IS BEING VIGOROUSLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ","OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A 101030Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED 35-40 KNOT ","WINDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, DISPLACED ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH ","OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95P IS IN AN ","UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE HIGH ","VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE ","ENTIRE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28 C) SEA ","SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A FAST ","EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED ","WIND FIELD AND THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ","PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 ","KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE ","POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN ","THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.","      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.","3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE:  ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2) AND ","ADDED AREA IN PARA. 2.C.(1) AS A LOW. ////"]}