"ABIO10 PGTW 121400\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/121400Z-121800ZNOV2024//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n9.0S 79.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 76.8E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nDEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), \r\nWHILE A 120957Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE \r\nBANDING WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO FORM INTO CURVED \r\nBANDS NEAR THE LLCC AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE \r\n37GHZ BAND REVEALS THAT THIS IS NOT A FALSE MICROWAVE EYE. LATER MSI AND \r\nEIR IMAGERY HOWEVER SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE MAY BE SHORT-LIVED, AS THE \r\nCONVECTION IS ALREADY STARTING TO FADE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES \r\nTHAT 95S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW \r\nTO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL \r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD \r\nDIRECTION AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN OVER \r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD \r\nAGREEMENT IN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS WELL.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE \r\nIS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO \r\nMEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//"