"ABIO10 PGTW 121800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/\r\n121800Z-131800ZNOV2024//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n9.0S 79.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 76.8E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER (LLCC) WITH DENSE FRAGMENTED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. \r\nTHE FRAGMENTED CONVECTION IS ALSO EVIDENT ON RECENT SSMIS 37 GHZ \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM \r\n(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, \r\nAND A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE ANALYZED POSITION THAT SUPPORTS THE \r\nGOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN \r\nAGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD \r\nTOWARD MADAGASCAR AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS \r\nMEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE."