"ABIO10 PGTW 250400\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/250400Z-251800ZNOV2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZNOV2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n4.9N 100.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 99.9E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PHUKET, THAILAND.. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE \r\nASSESSED CENTER OF 95B. A RECENT 250208Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS REVEALS A \r\nWELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), IN THE MIDDLE OF \r\nTHE STRAITS OF MALACCA, WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING MOST OF THE \r\nCIRCULATION, A SIGNIFICANT AND DRAMATIC STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT OVER \r\nTHE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nMODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KNOTS, DUEL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE \r\nMODELS, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, ARE NOT IN GOOD \r\nAGREEMENT, TRACKING 95B ACROSS A WIDE-RANGE OF POTENTIAL TRACKS. \r\nECEPS AND ECMWF TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD OVER NORTHERN SUMATRA, \r\nHINDERING DEVELOPING, WHILE GFS TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST BUT KEEPS \r\nIT OVER WATER, RESULTING IN MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION, WHILE \r\nNAVGEM FORECASTS 95B TO TAKE A SOUTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF THE \r\nMALAY PENINSULA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 \r\nTO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.5N \r\n79.4E, APPROXIMATELY 89 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. \r\nANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY \r\nOBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FORMATIVE \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN \r\nPERIPHERIES. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED AT THE WESTERN END OF A TROUGH \r\nWHICH EXTENDS EASTWARDS TO ANOTHER AREA OF ROTATION EAST OF SRI \r\nLANKA. A 242228Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW \r\nFORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A NASCENT LLCC, WHILE A \r\n241812Z OSCAT-3 SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH \r\nWINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS SURROUNDING THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nREVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE \r\nMODELS, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nPORTRAYING 96B TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER OR \r\nJUST SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA, THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT \r\n48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2). AND \r\nUPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//"