"SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/250400Z-251800ZNOV2025//\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZNOV2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n5.2N 99.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 100.0E, APPROXIMATELY 206 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS PERSISTENT, FLARING CONVECTION WITH AN OBSCURED \r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nMARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) \r\nSOUTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT 48 \r\nHOURS, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH \r\nGFS SHOWING THE CIRCULATION REACHING UP TO 35 KNOTS WHILE ECMWF IS \r\nMORE CONSERVATIVE. ONLY GEFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEFINED \r\nCIRCULATION WITHIN THE AREA THAT CAN BE DISTINCTLY FOLLOWED \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE TIMELINE. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT \r\nON THE TRACK BUT REMAIN SIMILAR WITH BOTH GEFS AND ECENS DEPICTING A \r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PROVENCE OF ACEH. THEY BOTH SHOW GRADUAL \r\nDEVELOPMENT INTO THE ANDAMAN SEA. ULTIMATELY WITH GEFS HAVING A \r\nSTRONGER TRACK AND SYSTEM LIFESPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS \r\nARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.5N \r\n79.4E, APPROXIMATELY 89 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. \r\nANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY \r\nOBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FORMATIVE \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN \r\nPERIPHERIES. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED AT THE WESTERN END OF A TROUGH \r\nWHICH EXTENDS EASTWARDS TO ANOTHER AREA OF ROTATION EAST OF SRI \r\nLANKA. A 242228Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW \r\nFORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A NASCENT LLCC, WHILE A \r\n241812Z OSCAT-3 SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH \r\nWINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS SURROUNDING THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nREVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE \r\nMODELS, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nPORTRAYING 96B TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER OR \r\nJUST SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA, THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT \r\n48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//"