"ABIO10 PGTW 250600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/250600Z-251800ZNOV2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZNOV2025//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT AND REF B IS A \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n4.5N 99.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 99.3E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PHUKET. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH \r\nDEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 250230Z ASCAT-B PASS \r\nREVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30 KNOTS \r\nWRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF INVEST 95B. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO \r\nMODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW \r\nALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE \r\nIN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95B WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE STEADY \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n6.6N 77.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 77.8E, APPROXIMATELY 133 NM WEST \r\nOF COLOMBO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A \r\nPARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH \r\nFORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN \r\nPERIPHERIES. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED AT THE WESTERN END OF A TROUGH \r\nWHICH EXTENDS EASTWARDS TO ANOTHER AREA OF ROTATION EAST OF SRI \r\nLANKA. A 242228Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW \r\nFORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A NASCENT LLCC, WHILE A \r\n241812Z OSCAT-3 SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH \r\nWINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS SURROUNDING THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nREVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE \r\nMODELS, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nPORTRAYING 96B TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER OR \r\nJUST SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA, THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT \r\n48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.(B).1 TO \r\nHIGH.//"