{"ObservationDate":"2025-11-25T04:00:00","Latitude":5.5,"Longitude":79.4,"Windspeed":25.0,"Pressure":1006.0,"Identifier":"INVEST 96B","PotentialStatus":"LOW","OriginalBulletin":["ABIO10 PGTW 250400","MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//","SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN ","REISSUED/250400Z-251800ZNOV2025//","REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZNOV2025//","AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//","RMKS/","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:","      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","4.9N 100.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 99.9E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM ","SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PHUKET, THAILAND.. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL ","SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE ","ASSESSED CENTER OF 95B. A RECENT 250208Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS REVEALS A ","WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), IN THE MIDDLE OF ","THE STRAITS OF MALACCA, WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING MOST OF THE ","CIRCULATION, A SIGNIFICANT AND DRAMATIC STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT OVER ","THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A ","MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL ","WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KNOTS, DUEL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA ","SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE ","MODELS, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, ARE NOT IN GOOD ","AGREEMENT, TRACKING 95B ACROSS A WIDE-RANGE OF POTENTIAL TRACKS. ","ECEPS AND ECMWF TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD OVER NORTHERN SUMATRA, ","HINDERING DEVELOPING, WHILE GFS TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST BUT KEEPS ","IT OVER WATER, RESULTING IN MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION, WHILE ","NAVGEM FORECASTS 95B TO TAKE A SOUTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF THE ","MALAY PENINSULA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 ","TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 ","MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL ","CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.","      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.5N ","79.4E, APPROXIMATELY 89 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ","ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY ","OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FORMATIVE ","CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ","PERIPHERIES. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED AT THE WESTERN END OF A TROUGH ","WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARDS TO ANOTHER AREA OF ROTATION EAST OF SRI ","LANKA. A 242228Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW ","FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A NASCENT LLCC, WHILE A ","241812Z OSCAT-3 SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH ","WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS SURROUNDING THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS ","REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL ","WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA ","SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE ","MODELS, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ","PORTRAYING 96B TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER OR ","JUST SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA, THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT ","48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 ","KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. ","THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE ","WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.","      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.","3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2). AND ","UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//"]}