"ABPW10 PGTW 161300\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/161300Z-170600ZJUN2026//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.2N 161.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 154.4E, APPROXIMATELY 597 NM \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAVAL STATION GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS 92W WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION \r\nOBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 161002Z \r\nASCAT METOP-C PASS SHOWS ELEVATED WINDS IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY BUT \r\nTHE PASS MISSED THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS, WHERE THE \r\nWEAKEST WRAPPING HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW \r\nCONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT A CLOSED CIRCULATION EXISTS OR IF 92W \r\nREMAINS A WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT \r\nFOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. \r\nGLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW LIMITED SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN \r\nTHE NEAR-TERM, BUT ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n15.2S 171.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.6S 176.7E, APPROXIMATELY 176 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION \r\nSITUATED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CHARACTERISTICS FOR TROPICAL \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH VERY HIGH (40-50 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, \r\nCOOL (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD \r\nOUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A \r\nSOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, SOUTH OF FIJI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 96P IS \r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME FURTHER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE \r\nWESTERLIES AND TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS AN INCOMING \r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENVELOPS THE SYSTEM. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, \r\nREFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS \r\nPRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 38 TO 43 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO \r\nMEDIUM.//"