"ABIO10 PGTW 261800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/261800Z-271800ZNOV2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/252000ZNOV24//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT./\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n6.0N 82.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 82.7E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST-\r\nNORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) AS WELL AS A 261229Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED \r\nDEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONSOLIDATING NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION. A \r\nPARTIAL 261508Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS INDICATES THE AREA OF CONVECTION \r\nHAS A SYMMETRICAL STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION WITH 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE \r\nEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES \r\nA FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL \r\nDIVERGENCE, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), SYMMETRIC 850 MB \r\nVORTICITY AND LOW TO MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS). \r\nGLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL \r\nCONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE TRACKING \r\nTOWARDS THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 \r\nTO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW \r\n252000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n9.3S 94.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 93.5E, APPROXIMATELY 249 NM \r\nNORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH PERSISTENT DEEP \r\nCONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 261601Z ASCAT METOP-C 25KM \r\nPASS INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS NOW WRAPPING \r\nAROUND THE CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH CONDUCIVE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG \r\n850 MB VORTICITY VALUE, AS WELL AS ROBUST RADIAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT. \r\nTHIS IS OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. \r\nGLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL \r\nCONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AND DRIFT POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO \r\n48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"