"ABPW10 PGTW 130600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZOCT2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130151ZOCT2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n5.8NN 148.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 478 NM SOUTH \r\nOF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 130433 \r\nGMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED BROAD AREA OF \r\nTURNING WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS AREA IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE \r\nPOLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DETERMINISTIC \r\nAND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION \r\n(96W) WILL DEVELOP ALONG A NORTH-WESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL \r\nINTENSIFICATION OVER TIME, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF WHICH LACKS \r\nDEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM \r\nSEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR \r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"