"ABPW10 PGTW 140600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZOCT2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140151ZOCT2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.0N 146.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 145.9E, APPROXIMATELY 163 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS \r\nA WAVE-LIKE FEATURE WITH NO DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), \r\nMOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-WEST. A 132330Z ASCAT-B PASS ALSO SHOWS NO \r\nCLOSED CIRCULATION, BUT A WEAK TROUGH OR WAVE, WITH A SOUTHWEST-\r\nNORTHEAST AXIS, SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THE ANIMATED MSI \r\nSUGGESTS SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION, HOWEVER THE SHAPE AND ORIENTATION OF \r\nTHE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS IS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW ORIENTATION AND THERE IS NO ACTUAL EVIDENCE OF ANY ROTATION \r\nANYWHERE IN THE COLUMN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE \r\nCONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 15 \r\nKNOTS), WARM SSTS (29-30C) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ALONG THE \r\nEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) WHICH \r\nEXTENDS FROM THE PHILIPPINES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS. \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT 96W MOVING IN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, WITH \r\nLITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NEXT 24-48 HOURS. BOTH THE GEFS AND \r\nECENS ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL ALSO TRACK \r\nTO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, BUT ALSO DEPICT \r\nLITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL PAST GUAM. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"