"ABIO10 PGTW 100030\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/100030Z-101800ZSEP2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZSEP2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 25.6N \r\n66.7E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KARACHI. ANIMATED \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW \r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND PERSISTENT \r\nDEEP CONVECTION. 97A HAS NOW EMERGED OVER WATER. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURF TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), \r\nAND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS \r\nARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97A WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK WITH \r\nECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN REGARD TO INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT \r\n24 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT 97A WILL \r\nCONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n5.2S 95.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8S 94.4E, APPROXIMATELY 464 NM NORTH-\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND DEVELOPING PERSISTENT DEEP \r\nCONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS), OFFSET BY \r\nWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW \r\nALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 93S \r\nCONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTH WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 \r\nHOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL \r\nCONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH, WITH ECMWF SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A HIGHER \r\nINTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//"