"ABIO10 PGTW 100800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/100800Z-101800ZSEP2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZSEP2025//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100752ZSEP2025//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nFORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n25.6N 66.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.1E, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM WEST \r\nOF KARACHI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH \r\nFRAGMENTED BANDING AND FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nINDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 \r\nC), AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND \r\nENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97A WILL CONTINUE ON A \r\nWESTWARD TRACK WITH LITTLE TO NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n5.2S 95.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.3S 94.1E, APPROXIMATELY 501 NM NORTH-\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM \r\n(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW \r\nALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH 93S \r\nTRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT \r\n24 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT THE \r\nCIRCULATION WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH ECMWF SHOWING SUPPORT \r\nFOR A HIGHER INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 100800) FOR FURTHER \r\nDETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//"