"ABIO10 PGTW 101800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/101800Z-111800ZSEP2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100751ZSEP2025//\r\nREF/B/MSG JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PERAL HARBOR HI/100752ZSEP2025//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT AND REF B IS A \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n24.9N 65.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 64.0E, APPROXIMATELY 163 NM WEST \r\nOF KARACHI. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) \r\nDEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED \r\nBANDING AND FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES \r\nMARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND \r\nSHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND WEAK \r\nEQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS \r\nARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97A WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK WITH \r\nLITTLE TO NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n4.3S 94.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8S 95.2E, APPROXIMATELY 641 NM \r\nSOUTHWEST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM \r\n(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW \r\nALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH 93S \r\nTRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT \r\n24 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT THE \r\nCIRCULATION WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH ECMWF SHOWING SUPPORT \r\nFOR A HIGHER INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS HIGH.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"