"ABIO10 PGTW 161800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/161800Z-171800ZNOV2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n11.4S 127.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A \r\nCONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING STARTING TO WRAP ALONG THE \r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 161334Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A VERY SMALL \r\nCIRCULATION, WITH A SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY \r\nOF 97S. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND \r\nSHEAR OF 15-20 KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM AND AGREE \r\nUPON A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK. ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWS 97S \r\nCONSOLIDATING FASTER THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS, HOWEVER, \r\nPREVIOUS RUNS HAD NAVGEM SHOWING A FASTER CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM \r\nBUT IT SINCE HAS BACKED OFF. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO \r\nBE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"