"ABIO10 PGTW 190100\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/190100Z-191800ZFEB2026//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190051ZFEB2026// \r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// \r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n12.5S 76.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 76.3E, APPROXIMATELY 401 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. DEEP \r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN PATCHY WITH LIMITED COVERAGE, PRIMARILY CONFINED \r\nSOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. WHILE \r\nTHE VORTEX REMAINS VERTICALLY TILTED DUE TO THIS SHEAR, THE LLCC HAS \r\nBECOME BETTER DEFINED AND MORE SYMMETRIC IN RECENT HOURS. AN 182230Z \r\nSSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED TIGHTLY COILED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS \r\nAROUND THE LLCC. AN EARLIER 181611Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 25-30 KNOT WIND \r\nBELTS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC, THOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS \r\nREMAINED SOMEWHAT DISTANT (ABOUT 80 NM) FROM THE CENTER, INDICATING \r\nTHAT AN ORGANIZED INNER CORE WIND FIELD HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED. THE \r\nENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS), MODERATE POLEWARD \r\nOUTFLOW ALOFT, AND A REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE ENCOMPASSING THE LLCC. \r\nMODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING \r\nFACTOR SHORT-TERM. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD, IT WILL \r\nENTER A REGION OF LIGHTER VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH \r\nTHE WELL-DEFINED LLCC AS A FOUNDATION, THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE \r\nVORTEX TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION \r\nGRADUALLY SYMMETRIZING AROUND THE LLCC. PHYSICAL AND AI-BASED MODELS \r\nALIKE ARE DEVELOPING A STRONG CONSENSUS FOR SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT. \r\nTHE ECMWF AND GFS GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE REACHING WARNING \r\nTHRESHOLD IN 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE HIGH-RESOLUTION HWRF AND HAFS-A \r\nMODELS IN 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN IN 12 \r\nTO 24 HOURS. THESE MODELS ALSO GENERALLY AGREE ON A SHORT-TERM \r\nSOUTHWARD TRACK, BENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD \r\nOVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED \r\nAT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A \r\n(WTXS21 PGTW 190100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (SUBTROPICAL STORM 21S) PREVIOUSLY \r\nLOCATED NEAR 31.5S 42.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 36.8S 42.3E, \r\nAPPROXIMATELY 876 NM SOUTH OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOSING INTENSITY IN THE \r\nSOUTHERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES \r\nUNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TRANSITION TO A FULLY TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH \r\nLOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), COOL SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES (2122 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 21S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN \r\nAS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS. FOR \r\nHAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO \r\nHIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST \r\nAUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 37 TO 43 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 991 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO \r\nHIGH.//"