"ABIO10 PGTW 191800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/191800Z-201800ZFEB2026//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190051ZFEB2026// \r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// \r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n12.9S 76.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 76.1E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE \r\nCENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EARLIER 191106Z \r\nSSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND \r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE (LLCC) AT THAT TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE \r\nAREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS), MODERATE POLEWARD \r\nOUTFLOW ALOFT, A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE ENCOMPASSING THE LLCC, AND \r\nLOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) THAT HAS DECREASED DURING THE \r\nPAST 12 HOURS. PHYSICAL AND AI-BASED MODELS ALIKE CONTINUE TO HAVE A \r\nSTRONG CONSENSUS FOR SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF AND GFS GLOBAL \r\nMODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IN 18 TO 30 HOURS, \r\nTHE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS, AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND \r\nENSEMBLE MEAN IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 97S \r\nCONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD DURING \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 \r\nTO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 \r\nMB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A \r\n(WTXS21 PGTW 190100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (SUBTROPICAL STORM 21S) PREVIOUSLY \r\nLOCATED NEAR 31.5S 42.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 36.8S 42.3E, \r\nAPPROXIMATELY 990 NM SOUTHEAST OF EAST LONDON, SOUTH AFRICA. ANIMATED \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WEAKLY DEFINED \r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ON \r\nTHE SOUTH SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES \r\nUNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TRANSITION TO A FULLY TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH \r\nHIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 30 KNOTS), COOL SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES (BELOW 21 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW \r\nALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 21S WILL BECOME \r\nEXTRATROPICAL AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL \r\nWESTERLIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 37 TO 43 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 991 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//"