"ABPW10 PGTW 210600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZOCT2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZOCT2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n24.2N 124.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 123.4E, APPROXIMATELY 42 NM \r\nWEST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 10210042Z ASCAT REVEALS A WAVE LIKE \r\nFEATURE PASSING ISHIGAKIJIMA, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS \r\nPASSING SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN \r\nEDGE OF A STRONG COLD-SURGE EVENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA \r\nINDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND \r\nSHEAR (25-30 KTS), WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND \r\nGOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE WAVE FEATURE \r\nPUSHING WEST AND INTERACTING WITH THE COLD SURGE FLOW, PULLING GALE-\r\nFORCE NORTHERLY WINDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF TAIWAN AND \r\nWRAPPING INTO THE CUSP, EVENTUALLY HELPING TO CLOSE IT OFF INTO A \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS \r\nSYSTEM, TRACKING SOUTH-EAST OF TAIWAN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE \r\nOTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW THIS \r\nWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT INTERACTIONS WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE BUT ARE \r\nLESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"