"ABPW10 PGTW 230600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZOCT2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230151ZOCT2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n22.9N 123.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 121.EE, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM \r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH LOOSE \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 230142Z ASCAT PASS \r\nREVEALED A VERY SMALL ROTATION OFF THE NORTHWEST TIP OF LUZON, \r\nHOWEVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROTATION WAS NOT CLOSED. WINDS WERE \r\nNEAR 30 KNOTS TO THE WEST, BUT WERE ASSESSED AS STRAIGHT LINE FLOW \r\nASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE AND NOT WRAPPING INTO THE ROTATION \r\nASSOCIATED WITH 97W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR FORMATION WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, \r\nLOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-15 KNOTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN \r\nDISAGREEMENT ON THE FORMATION OF A SYSTEM, THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAVOR \r\nOF IT WITH ECENS BEING AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE \r\nDEPICTING A WEAKENING CIRCULATION WHICH EVENTUALLY OPENS UP INTO A \r\nWAVE FEATURE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.  \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"