"ABIO10 PGTW 221030\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/221030Z-221800ZOCT2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220951ZOCT2024//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n16.2N 91.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 486 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH \r\nFRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. A 220337Z GMI 89GHZ \r\nCOLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LLC WITH \r\nIMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER. A 220245Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CENTER \r\nWITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS \r\nINDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE \r\nWESTERLIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER \r\nDEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT \r\n48 HOURS WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO \r\nBE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A \r\n(WTIO21 PGTW 221000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) TO \r\nHIGH.//"