"ABPW10 PGTW 210300\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/210300Z-210600ZMAR2026//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZMAR2026//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED \r\nNEAR 11.1S 161.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 161.1E, APPROXIMATELY 145 \r\nNM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD, BUT STEADILY DEVELOPING A LOWER-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION (LLC), WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION SCATTERED \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE \r\nCONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR \r\n(15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND GOOD \r\nPOLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE ON FORMATION \r\nTIME FRAME WITH THE GFS MODEL BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ECMWF \r\nLATER BY 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODELS HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF \r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT OF 98P INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT TAKING A \r\nGENERAL SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO \r\nMEDIUM.//"