"ABPW10 PGTW 210600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZMAR2026//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZMAR2026//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n11.1S 161.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 161.1E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nDEPICTS A STEADILY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) \r\nWITH FLARING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS), MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND \r\nWARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON \r\nFORMATION TIMELINE, BUT HOWEVER DO AGREE ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS \r\nIS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL, SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS DEVELOPING IN AROUND \r\n30-36 HOURS. ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK, \r\nTOWARD NEW CALEDONIA, OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"