{"ObservationDate":"2026-03-21T03:00:00","Latitude":-11.7,"Longitude":161.1,"Windspeed":28.0,"Pressure":1004.0,"Identifier":"INVEST 98P","PotentialStatus":"MEDIUM","OriginalBulletin":["ABPW10 PGTW 210300","MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//","SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH ","PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/210300Z-210600ZMAR2026//","REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZMAR2026//","AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//","RMKS/","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:","      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ","NEAR 11.1S 161.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 161.1E, APPROXIMATELY 145 ","NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE ","IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD, BUT STEADILY DEVELOPING A LOWER-LEVEL ","CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION SCATTERED ","THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE ","CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ","(15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND GOOD ","POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE ON FORMATION ","TIME FRAME WITH THE GFS MODEL BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ","LATER BY 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODELS HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF ","THE DEVELOPMENT OF 98P INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT TAKING A ","GENERAL SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM ","SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA ","LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE ","DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 ","HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.","      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.","3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO ","MEDIUM.//"]}