"ABPW10 PGTW 220600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZOCT2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZOCT2024//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n16.0N 141.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 141.4E, APPROXIMATELY 213 NM \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nDEPICTS A WEAK, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH \r\nLIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. A \r\n220006Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A WEAK LLC WITH THE \r\nBULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT \r\nWITH BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR \r\n(15-20 KNOTS). INVEST 97W ALONG WITH INVEST 98W ARE LOCATED WITHIN A \r\nCOMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH TWO DISTINCT FORMATION SCENARIOS. \r\nGFS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPS 97W WHILE TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH 98W TRACKING POLEWARD AND \r\nGETTING ABSORBED WITHIN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE 97W. NAVGEM AND \r\nECMWF, ON THE OTHER HAND, SHOW LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WITH 97W BUT SLOWLY \r\nDEVELOP 98W AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON \r\nTHE AGGRESSIVE MODEL DEVELOPMENT IN GFS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2N \r\n150.5E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FULLY EXPOSED \r\nLOW-LEVEL TURNING WITH ISOLATED, FLARING CONVECTION JUST EAST OF THE \r\nSYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 \r\nC) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) \r\nNORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ARE \r\nCURRENTLY HINDERING 98W AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. INVEST 97W \r\nALONG WITH INVEST 98W ARE LOCATED WITHIN A COMPLEX STEERING \r\nENVIRONMENT WITH TWO DISTINCT FORMATION SCENARIOS. GFS AGGRESSIVELY \r\nDEVELOPS 97W WHILE TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD \r\nOVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH 98W TRACKING POLEWARD AND GETTING \r\nABSORBED WITHIN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE 97W. NAVGEM AND ECMWF, ON \r\nTHE OTHER HAND, SHOW LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WITH 97W BUT SLOWLY DEVELOP \r\n98W AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"