"ABPW10 PGTW 240630\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/240630Z-250600ZOCT2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZOCT2024//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240251ZOCT2024//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nFORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n8.0N 151.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 150.0E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A\r\n232303Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF FLARING \r\nCONVECTION, WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AND AN \r\nAREA OF STRONG WINDS NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C), GOOD RADIAL \r\nOUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS). \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL GENERALLY \r\nTRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. \r\nSEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 240300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.4N \r\n148.6E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF \r\nFRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY, WITH A \r\nPOORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL ROTATION EMBEDDED WITH A MUCH LARGER \r\nROTATION THAT EXTENDS FAR TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE AT \r\nTHE MOMENT THAT FULLY CLOSED CIRCULATION IS PRESENT, HOWEVER, THERE IS \r\nNO DOUBT THAT THERE IS A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM ON THE INSIDE EDGE \r\nOF A BROAD ENHANCED WIND FIELD EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 99W IS IN A GENERALLY \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW TO MODERATE \r\n(15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE \r\nMIXED, WITH THE GFS SHOWING THAT INVEST 99W WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK \r\nTOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, \r\nWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS INVEST 98W TO THE SOUTHWEST BEING THE MAIN \r\nCIRCULATION THAT DEVELOPS. REGARDLESS, THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH \r\n99W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AND BRING \r\nGUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM \r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA \r\nLEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//"