"ABPW10 PGTW 310600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH\r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZOCT2025-010600ZNOV2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED\r\nNEAR 7.1N 142.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY\r\n259 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY\r\n(MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER \r\n(LLCC).ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE \r\nCONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), WARM \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 98W INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS \r\nWITH GFS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL. WHILE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN \r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS ALONG A WESTWARD \r\nTRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR\r\n10.6N 152.8E, APPROXIMATELY 108 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED\r\nENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION IN THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY ALONG THE DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE\r\nCONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS),\r\nWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW \r\nALOFT.GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nTHAT 99W WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH GFS AND GEFS SHOWING A MORE SIGNIFICANT \r\nINTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS \r\nARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE."