"ABIO10 PGTW 241800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/241800Z-251800ZNOV2024//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n5.0N 88.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.9N 85.7E, APPROXIMATELY 393 NM EAST-\r\nSOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION \r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH. A 241252Z SSMIS F17 91GHZ MICROWAVE \r\nIMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN AND \r\nSOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 241228Z WSF-M 37 GHZ \r\nDATA. A 241548Z ASCAT METOP-B PARTIAL PASS INDICATES 20 KT WINDS ALONG \r\nTHE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH, WITH LIGHT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES OF 29-30C, AND MODERATELY SYMMETRIC 850 MB VORTICITY \r\nOFFSET BY STRONG (20-25 KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL \r\nCONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SRI LANKA OVER THE NEXT \r\n24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n8.2S 92.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 314 NM \r\nNORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A \r\n241503Z ASCAT METOP-C 25KM PASS REVEALS 96S LIES ALONG THE \r\nNORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS, WITH 10-20 KT WINDS. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (30 KT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DESPITE \r\nWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C AND AN IMPROVING 850 MB \r\nVORTICITY SIGNATURE. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nTHAT INVEST 96S WILL PERSIST AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE SOUTH \r\nINDIAN OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS \r\nARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"