"ABIO10 PGTW 251800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/251800Z-261800ZNOV2024//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n3.9N 85.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 83.6E, APPROXIMATELY 252 NM EAST-\r\nSOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION \r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH. A 251238Z SSMIS F17 91GHZ MICROWAVE \r\nIMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-\r\nCIRCLE. A 241548Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS INDICATES 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE \r\nWESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES OF 29-30C, AND MODERATELY SYMMETRIC 850 MB VORTICITY \r\nOFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. \r\nGLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL \r\nCONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n8.3S 93.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 95.3E, APPROXIMATELY 202 NM NORTH-\r\nNORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED PERSISTENT \r\nCONVECTION. A 251534Z ASCAT METOP-C 25KM PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC \r\nWIND FIELD WITH 10-20 KT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN \r\nUNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH \r\n(20-25 KT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DESPITE WARM SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES OF 29-30C AND AN IMPROVING 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE. \r\nGLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL \r\nPERSIST AND DRIFT POLEWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24-\r\n48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 \r\nKNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"