"ABIO10 PGTW 281800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/281800Z-291800ZNOV2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271951ZNOV2024//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281351ZNOV2024//\r\nNARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n8.9N 82.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 83.7E, APPROXIMATELY 267 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A \r\n281525Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE INDICATES AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER WITH 25-30 KT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF \r\nTHE DEFINED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL \r\nPOLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C OFFSET BY \r\nHIGH (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC \r\nMODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY \r\nCONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF INDIA OVER \r\nTHE NEXT 24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT \r\n28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW \r\n272000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"