"ABIO10 PGTW 281800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/281800Z-\r\n291800ZNOV2024//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271951ZNOV2024//\r\nREF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281351ZNOV2024//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n8.9N 82.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 83.7E, APPROXIMATELY 267 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nDEPICTS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 281525Z \r\nASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE INDICATES AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 25-\r\n30 KT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE DEFINED \r\nCIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD \r\nOUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40 \r\nKNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR \r\nAGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99B WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT \r\nTRACKS POLEWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF INDIA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM \r\nSEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nREMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 272000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"