"ABPW10 PGTW 301500\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/301500Z-310600ZJAN2026//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n15.2S 137.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM \r\nWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nDEPICTS A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING \r\nWRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED TO BE OVER \r\nLAND IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR \r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND MINIMAL EFFECTS FROM LAND INTERACTION. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHERE 98P WILL TRACK, GFS SHOWS IT \r\nREEMERGING OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WHILE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE \r\nWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STORM TRAVELS INLAND TOWARD THE KIMBERLY COAST.  \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n16.2S 170.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 170.8E, APPROXIMATELY 113 NM \r\nSOUTH OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A \r\n301217Z ASMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER WITH BUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN \r\nPERIPHERY. A 300917Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD \r\nWITH A SWATH OF 30 KNOT WINDS THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 \r\nTO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL \r\nMODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH 99P MAINTAINING \r\nAN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED \r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nIS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO \r\nMEDIUM.//"