{"ObservationDate":"2026-01-20T21:00:00","Latitude":-15.9,"Longitude":156.5,"Windspeed":27.0,"Pressure":1000.0,"Identifier":"INVEST 99P","PotentialStatus":"MEDIUM","OriginalBulletin":["ABPW10 PGTW 202100","MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//","SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH ","PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/202100Z-210600ZJAN2026//","REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201351ZJAN2026//","AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//","RMKS/","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:","      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","6.3N 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY 362 NM WEST ","OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ","DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE ","NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY ","FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL ","OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS), ","AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). ECENS IS THE MOST ","AGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS, HOWEVER, THE DETERMINISTIC ","MODELS ARE MUCH MORE HESITANT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF 92W. GLOBAL ","MODELS SHOW 92W TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO ","48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 ","KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE ","POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN ","THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.","      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.","   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:","      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR ","14.8S 151.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 156.5E, APPROXIMATELY 374 NM ","EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ","REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL ","CIRCULATION (LLC), EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS ","SOUTHEASTWARD INTO INVEST 94P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS ","FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL ","WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND ","GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE CONSERVATIVE IN ","DEVELOPMENT OF 99P, AND ONLY THE GFS SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION ABOVE 35 ","KNOTS PRIOR TO REACHING NEW CALEDONIA. BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS ","ENSEMBLES HOWEVER, SUPPORT STRENGTHENING AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE ","NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEANCE THAT 99P WITH TAKE ","A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM ","SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA ","LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE ","DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ","REMAINS MEDIUM.","      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.","   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.","3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA. 1.A.(1) WITH 04W FINAL","WARNING INFORMATION.//"]}