"ABIO10 PGTW 181800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/181800Z-191800ZAPR2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181351ZAPR2025//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n13.0S 71.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 71.3E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM \r\nSOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\n(EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) \r\nWITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A \r\nRECENT 180409Z ASCAT METOP-C 25KM PASS FURTHER REVEALS THE BROAD, \r\nWEAK NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH GRADIENT WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS \r\nDISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS \r\nA MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-\r\nLEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK OR NO DEVELOPMENT WITH A \r\nSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE GEFS MODEL PREDICTS WEAK DEVELOPMENT, \r\nWHEREAS THE ECENS MODEL SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEVELOPMENT AMONG \r\nITS MEMBERS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO \r\n28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"