"ABIO10 PGTW 011800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/011800Z-\r\n021800ZAPR2026//\r\nREF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011721ZAPR2026//\r\nAMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n10.8S 75.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 74.5E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) \r\nPREVIOUSLY LOCATED 10.8S 75.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 74.5E, \r\nAPPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED \r\nINFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 99S AS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRONGER CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR \r\nTHE CENTER. WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS, THE STRONGEST TURNING IS NEAR THE \r\nSOUTHEASTWARD SIDE OF THE LLCC BASED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH \r\nLOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 KNOTS OR LESS), GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL AND \r\nENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SWIFT DEVELOPMENT AND A STEADY \r\nSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 011200Z POSITION HAS \r\nBEEN REASSESSED TO BE 35NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE POSITION IN REF A, \r\nREVEALED BY 011235Z WSFM MICROWAVE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE \r\nREF A (WTXS21 PGTW 011730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"