"ABPW10 PGTW 010600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH \r\nPACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZNOV2025//\r\nREF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010151ZNOV2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n9.4N 138.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 139.0E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST \r\nOF YAP. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC  \r\nWITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 010413Z 89 \r\nGHZ GWI AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER \r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS \r\nDEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KTS, AND WARM \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL \r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS WELL AS THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM \r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED \r\nAT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW \r\n010200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.\r\n      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n11.8N 147.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 147.7E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A \r\nPARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC WITH LOCALIZED BURSTS OF CONVECTION. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT \r\nWITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS, AND \r\nWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE \r\nSLOW CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS ITS GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD \r\nTRACK, THOUGH GFS DEPICTS THE SYSTEM FORMING EARLIER THAN THE OTHER \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS \r\nARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//"