"ABIO10 PGTW 191800\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN \r\nOCEAN/191800Z-201800ZFEB2025//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n11.4S 127.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 201 NM \r\nNORTH OF ADELE ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 191343Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT \r\nA SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PULSING \r\nCONVECTION AROUND BROAD SURFACE TURNING AND ASSOCIATED FRAGMENTED \r\nBANDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A \r\nSUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR \r\n(VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, WEAK EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE \r\nMODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE \r\nNEXT 24 HOURS, WITH MOST NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS \r\nPORTRAYING WEAK, TO SLOW MODEL DEVELOPMENT. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED \r\nPROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CHARACTERIZES A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT \r\nINTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS, HOWEVER, ECMWF AND ITS \r\nENSEMBLE, ECENS, BOTH FORECAST 99S TO REACH CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN THE \r\nNEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO \r\n23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.\r\n   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 14S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR \r\n30.2S 75.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1118 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, \r\nMAURITIUS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND \r\nMIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH \r\nFLARING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST, EXPOSING \r\nTHE FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL \r\nANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION \r\nDEFINED BY A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE MID-\r\nLEVELS, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25, AND COOL \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF LESS THAN 26 C. DETERMINISTIC AND \r\nENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 14S WILL \r\nTRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A BROAD AND ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OVER THE \r\nNEXT 24 HOURS, THEN WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEREAFTER. FOR HAZARDS \r\nAND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS \r\nAND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 38 TO 40 KNOTS. \r\nMINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//"