"ABIO10 PGTW 080600\r\nMSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//\r\nSUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN \r\nREISSUED/080600Z-081800ZMAR2024//\r\nRMKS/\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.\r\n   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:\r\n      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR \r\n22.8S 41.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.0S 42.0E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM \r\nSOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY (EIR) AND A 071605Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A \r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING \r\nCONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR \r\nFURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW EQUATORWARD, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES \r\n(SST). HOWEVER, A DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR MASS WRAPPING INTO 90S FROM THE \r\nWEST IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IN INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL \r\nDETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO \r\nWEAKEN IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF \r\nAFRICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE \r\nESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A \r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.\r\n      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.5S \r\n93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED \r\nMULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY(MSI) AND A 072353Z SSMIS 91GHZ \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH \r\nCENTRALIZED FLARING CONVECTION EXTENDING OUTWARDS TO THE NORTHWESTERN \r\nPERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KTS) \r\nVWS, WEAK TO MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN \r\nGOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK INTO A \r\nMORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHILE CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHENING OVER \r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT \r\n18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR \r\n1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.\r\n      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS."