WTIO31 FMEE 011828
WTIO40 FMEE 011827
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/5/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/01 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 68.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 120 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/02 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 120

24H: 2026/01/02 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 0

36H: 2026/01/03 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 0

48H: 2026/01/03 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 155 NW: 0

60H: 2026/01/04 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 155 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/04 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/05 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 150 NW: 120

120H: 2026/01/06 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 150 NW: 130

INFORMATION: IN ADDITION TO THESE FORECASTS, THE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
ON THIS SYSTEM, INCLUDING ELEMENTS OF UNDERSTANDING ON THE ANALYSIS,
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON A
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS, CAN BE FOUND WITH THE WTIO30 FMEE BULLETIN.=