WTPQ31 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TY GAEMI IS LOCATED AT 18.6N, 125.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
  HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
  HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
  OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EXPANSION
  OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
  ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
  THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
  MAINLAND BY FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
  AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
  FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
  AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
  OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE INTENSITY
  FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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