WTPQ31 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR STS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  STS GAEMI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 25.5N, 119.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS.
  THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
  THE INFLUENCE OF LAND, DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED
  THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
  CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
  VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
  NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
  CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
  OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
  SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
  OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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