WTPQ31 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS GAEMI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 28.7N, 116.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
  AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  LAND AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
  LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
  DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
  VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
  METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
  CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
  OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
  INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW,
  LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO
  ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
  INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
  OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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