WTPQ31 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.31 FOR TS 2403 GAEMI (2403)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS GAEMI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 29.2N, 115.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL
  ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
  WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
  SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
  PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
  VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
  DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
  ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
  OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
  OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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